This round’s story
Cat A vs Cat B spread widens to $1,889
The number that stands out from the COE results July 2026 is not the absolute prices. It is the spread between Cat A and Cat B: $1,889.
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What this could mean
The number that stands out from the COE results July 2026 is not the absolute prices. It is the spread between Cat A and Cat B: $1,889.
Over the past twelve months, that gap has ranged anywhere from $345 to $21,489. Last round it sat at $345, the narrowest it had been in that window. This round it widened slightly to $1,889, but by historical standards it is still unusually tight. For most of the past year, a buyer choosing between a Cat A car and a Cat B car was looking at a COE difference of well above $10,000. Right now, that difference is under $2,000.
What makes this round more telling is where the pressure came from. Cat B moved faster, up 6.0% from $123,502 to $130,889. Cat A rose 4.2%, from $123,847 to $129,000. Cat B also carried the stronger bid-to-quota ratio this round, at 1.73 against Cat A’s 1.51. A ratio above 1.5 generally reads as genuine demand, so both categories are firmly in that zone, but Cat B’s ratio suggests buyers in that segment are competing harder for fewer slots.
One possibility is that Cat B demand is being pulled by a narrowing window. If buyers expect the spread to widen again, there could be a front-loading effect, people bidding now before Cat B climbs further relative to Cat A. We cannot say that with confidence. It could also reflect a shift in the mix of cars being registered, or simply a stronger month for that segment.
Or it could just be one noisy month.
Cat E at $129,801 is worth a separate look. It rose only 0.6% this round, the smallest move across all categories. Cat E carries no PQP cap, meaning there is no ceiling mechanism tied to renewal costs the way there is for Cat A and Cat B. That it is holding almost flat while the two car categories beneath it are climbing is one of the quieter signals in this round’s data.
The assumption that Cat A is meaningfully cheaper than Cat B deserves a second look at these levels. Whether that gap stays narrow into the next round is worth watching.
Next round of bidding: 22 July 2026
Looking ahead
The assumption that Cat A is meaningfully cheaper than Cat B deserves a second look at these levels. Whether that gap stays narrow into the next round is worth watching.
Next round of bidding: 22 July 2026.