The short version
- Quota Premium (QP) is the price every winner pays in a round, set by the lowest successful bid.
- Bids-to-quota ratio reads round-on-round demand pressure. Above 1.7x is aggressive bidding; below 1.0x is undersubscribed and rare.
- PQP is the rolling 3-month average of QP. This is the figure used when you renew an expiring COE, not the latest round.
- MoM percentage moves under 1 percent are noise. Anything above 6 percent usually has a specific cause worth understanding.
- Cat A and Cat B usually move together. When they diverge, it tells you something about mass-market vs luxury demand.
Twice a month, the LTA publishes a short table of numbers, and Singapore’s car-buying community spends the next few hours arguing about what they mean. Once you know what each column is telling you, the table becomes much more readable. Here is a working guide.
| What you are asking | Quota Premium (QP) | Prevailing Quota Premium (PQP) |
|---|---|---|
| What is it? | The price every winner pays in a round, set by the lowest successful bid. | The rolling 3-month average of QP for each category. |
| How often does it change? | Every bidding round, and results are published twice a month. | Recalculated monthly. |
| Who pays it? | Anyone buying new in that round. | Anyone renewing an expiring COE for another 5 or 10 years. |
| What does one bad round do to it? | A single bad round is paid in full. | It smooths out individual round spikes, though it lags: if premiums spike for three straight rounds, PQP catches up by the third month. |
| Which one should you watch? | Each round’s QP, if you are buying. | PQP each month, if you are within a year of your COE expiring. |
The columns you will always see
Every COE bidding result, regardless of the source, includes these fields per category:
| Column | What it tells you |
|---|---|
| Quota Premium (QP) | The price every winner pays. Set by the lowest successful bid. |
| Quota | How many COEs were available this round. |
| Bids Received | How many bids came in. |
| Bids Successful | How many bids actually won. Usually equals quota when there are enough bids. |
The ratio of Bids Received to Quota is one read of how competitive a round was. A 1.5x oversubscription often signals upward pressure on the next round; a round with bids barely matching quota signals softness.
How premiums are usually quoted
You will almost always see QP shown like this:
The percentage is the change versus the previous bidding round, not versus a specific month. For COE, “MoM” in this context typically means “from the immediately preceding round,” not strict calendar month. Some publications also show YoY (year-on-year) which compares to the same round one year earlier; useful for spotting longer trends.
What MoM, YoY, and the arrows mean
An up arrow means the premium climbed since last round. A down arrow means it slipped. The size of the move matters more than the direction:
- Under 1 percent: noise. Within normal round-to-round variance.
- 1 to 3 percent: a real shift, but not unusual.
- 3 to 6 percent: notable. Worth understanding what changed.
- Above 6 percent: unusual. Often correlates with a specific event (quota change, scheme launch, holiday surge).
YoY is useful because it controls for round-to-round noise.
What PQP is and why it matters
PQP is the Prevailing Quota Premium. It is the rolling 3-month average of QP for each category, recalculated monthly. PQP is the figure used when you renew an expiring COE for another 5 or 10 years.
One read of PQP: it smooths out individual round spikes, so renewing during a single bad round does not punish you the way buying new in that round would. Another read: it lags. If premiums spike for three straight rounds, PQP catches up by the third month.
If you are within a year of your COE expiring, watching PQP each month is more useful than watching QP each round. Our renewal vs scrap guide walks through how to use PQP in the actual decision.
Bids Received divided by Quota
This ratio is not always published, but most aggregator sites compute it. It is a quick way to read demand pressure:
- Below 1.0x: undersubscribed. Rare but signals demand softness.
- 1.0x to 1.3x: typical range.
- 1.3x to 1.7x: heavier demand. Premiums likely to firm next round.
- Above 1.7x: aggressive bidding. Premiums often climb.
This ratio is one signal among many. We would not over-rely on it for predicting next round’s premium. A round can finish at 1.6x and the next round still drift down if a quota increase is announced in between.
Reading category cross-talk
Cat A and Cat B usually move together but at different magnitudes.
If you are not sure which category your next car would fall under, our Cat A vs Cat B explainer walks through the cutoff and what it means in practice.
What is hard to see in the numbers
Headlines often miss things the numbers themselves do not show.
Quota changes between quarters, scheme tweaks (EV incentives, ARF changes), and budget announcements all alter the demand curve in ways that may not show up immediately. When commentary says “premiums fell because of X,” that is a hypothesis, not a finding. Multiple drivers can be at play in the same round.
The chart is also blind to a sentiment shift. A round can finish flat in QP terms while bid count drops sharply. That is the early signal of a cooling cycle, but you will only see it if you track Bids Received, not just the headline price.
Where to track results
The original source is the LTA’s DataMall feed. Our COE Results hub updates within hours of each release, with the smart 12-month chart and per-category breakdown. For history, see the 5-year COE archive on the same hub.
If you are nearing your COE expiry and weighing the next move, the renewal vs scrap guide walks through the decision with current numbers. If you are buying a new car and trying to figure out which COE category applies, start with Cat A vs Cat B.
When to talk to us
If you are weighing a COE renewal, an export, or a scrap and want a second opinion on the numbers, WhatsApp us. We will look at your car’s PARF rebate, current scrap value, and the latest PQP, and tell you which option actually wins on the maths. No pressure, no pushing you into the option that pays us more.
We are at Autobay @ Kaki Bukit, #02-61, open Monday to Friday 9am to 6:30pm and Saturday 9am to 12:30pm.
