This round’s story
Cat A vs Cat B spread narrows to $345
Cat A and Cat B are $345 apart. Over the past twelve months, that spread has ranged from $980 to $21,489. This round it has nearly closed to nothing.
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What this could mean
Cat A and Cat B are $345 apart. Over the past twelve months, that spread has ranged from $980 to $21,489. This round it has nearly closed to nothing.
The prior round was already unusual at $980. This round, Cat A came in at $123,847 and Cat B at $123,502, a difference smaller than the cost of a set of tyres on either car. The traditional logic of buying Cat A to save meaningfully on COE is hard to apply when the gap is this thin. Cat A covers cars up to 1,600cc and 130bhp; Cat B covers everything above those limits. Historically, the engineering ceiling of Cat A translated into a price ceiling too. Right now, that relationship has broken down.
What is driving it, we cannot say with confidence. One possibility is that Cat A demand is stickier. Buyers who need a mass-market car cannot simply switch to a Cat B alternative or sit out the market the way a Cat B buyer might. That persistent demand could be keeping Cat A premiums elevated even as Cat B softens. Both categories did fall this round, Cat A by 1.7% and Cat B by 2.7%, so Cat B is dropping faster, which would explain the compression.
Or it could just be two categories moving at different speeds for one noisy round.
The bid-to-quota ratios are worth watching alongside the prices. Cat A came in at 1.41 and Cat B at 1.36, both below the 1.5 threshold that typically reads as strong demand. Neither category is thin, but neither is running hot. If both ratios drift below 1.2 in coming rounds, that would be a different signal entirely.
Cat E held almost perfectly flat at $129,002, up from $129,000 last round. Cat E carries no PQP cap, so there is no renewal ceiling mechanism anchoring it the way PQP works for Cat A and Cat B renewals. Its stability this round sits alongside two categories that fell, which one read of this is that open-category demand has a floor the others do not.
If you are budgeting across categories right now, the assumption that Cat A offers a meaningful cost advantage over Cat B deserves a second look at these levels.
Next round of bidding: 8 July 2026
Looking ahead
If you are budgeting across categories right now, the assumption that Cat A offers a meaningful cost advantage over Cat B deserves a second look at these levels.
Next round of bidding: 8 July 2026.