This round’s story
Cat A vs Cat B spread widens to $6,020
The Cat A and Cat B spread widened to $6,020 this round, up from $3,890 last round. That sounds like a return to normal until you check the twelve-month range: the spread has sat anywhere between $345 and $21,489 over the past year. At $6,020, we are still well below the historical midpoint, which means the two categories remain closer together than they have been for most of the past year.
Premium Trend · All 5 Categories
What this could mean
The Cat A and Cat B spread widened to $6,020 this round, up from $3,890 last round. That sounds like a return to normal until you check the twelve-month range: the spread has sat anywhere between $345 and $21,489 over the past year. At $6,020, we are still well below the historical midpoint, which means the two categories remain closer together than they have been for most of the past year.
Cat A fell 1.7%, from $126,000 to $123,890. Cat B was essentially flat, moving from $129,890 to $129,910. So the spread widened not because Cat B rose, but because Cat A softened. One read of this: Cat A’s bid-to-quota ratio came in at 1.24, which sits just above the 1.2 threshold that tends to signal thinning demand. That is not a collapse, but it is not strong pressure either. Cat B’s ratio was 1.42, a bit firmer, which could partly explain why Cat B held its price while Cat A gave ground.
What is driving Cat A’s softer bid ratio, we cannot say with confidence. One possibility is that some buyers are sitting out after a stretch of elevated premiums. Another is that quota levels are absorbing demand more comfortably this round. LTA sets quota quarterly based on deregistrations and policy, so any shift there would not be visible in a single round’s data.
Or it could just be one noisy round.
Cat E at $131,000 is worth a separate look. It finished above both Cat A and Cat B, which is its usual position, but Cat E carries no PQP cap. That means there is no renewal ceiling mechanism attached to it the way there is for Cat A and Cat B renewals. Buyers who hold a Cat E COE face a renewal cost set entirely by whatever the PQP is at that future point, with no structural limit. That is a different kind of long-term exposure, and the $131,000 entry price reflects a market that is still willing to pay for that flexibility.
The spread between Cat A and Cat B deserves a second look before the next round, particularly if Cat A’s bid ratio stays below 1.3 while Cat B holds firm.
Next round of bidding: 19 August 2026
Looking ahead
The spread between Cat A and Cat B deserves a second look before the next round, particularly if Cat A’s bid ratio stays below 1.3 while Cat B holds firm.
Next round of bidding: 19 August 2026.